- In an unpopular decision in June, the Supreme Court rescinded a constitutional right to abortion. Since then Mr. Biden’s net approval rating has risen by nine percentage points. The Democrats’ margin has improved by two points in polls asking which party should control Congress.
- In almost every close Senate race this year, Democrats are receiving more in-state donations than their opponents. J. D. Vance (Ohio) has yet to hit $500,000 in contributions, even when including those from outside Ohio. His Democratic competitor, Tim Ryan, is nearing $20m, a third of which is from Ohio. Looking at the in-state donors for which records are available, Mark Kelly (Arizona) has collected $5.2m to his opponent’s $500,000, and Mehmet Oz (Pennsylvania) has $700,000 against Mr. Fetterman’s $4.8m. With polls and fundamental factors favouring Mr. Kelly and Mr. Fetterman, the model puts their chances of victory at 88%.
Kanlaon 